Yanukovytch vs. Tymoshenko : the choice of Maydan

On Jan. 17, Viktor Yanukovych, as expected, dominated the first round of the Ukrainian presidential election. He won 35, 32 percent of the votes in an election with a 66 percent turnout.

In the second round he will face current Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko who surprisingly collected 25, 05 percent of the votes. Yanukovych won in nine regions among which are the Eastern and Southern parts of the country populated by mostly pro-Russian supporters. Tymoshenko won in Kiev and in 15 other regions.

The presidential election comes at a hard time for Ukraine. The country is gripped between Russia’s economic and political pressures and a struggle to join the West and the EU.
Five years after the Orange Revolution, the civil society still seems to be concerned with the country’s destiny.

Also, 2009 hasn’t been good for Ukrainian politicians who had to face a tattering economy. Unemployment rates exceeded 20 percent, the local currency, grivna, devaluated by 50 percent last year and GDP decreased by 15 percent. In addition, the Ukrainian economy is largely dependent on the International Monetary Fund, which supported the local economy and national currency with 16, 4 billion dollars. As a consequence President Viktor Yushchenko took fifth place with 5, 45 percent of the votes.

In the blogosphere and media, many are writing about the end of the “orange plague” that has paralyzed the country for more than five years. The president’s opponents are already claiming victory, because the first round can be read as a “no” to Yushchenko’s mandate.

What about the second round? The two candidates have started already campaigning around the country, but with Yanukovych in the lead many doubts still remain.

On Jan. 18, Yanukovych said: “I would like everybody to hear me, the ones who voted for me and the ones who voted for other candidates. I will lead Ukraine to Europe. But we will do it, not as a weak country but as a powerful and independent one, which has European standards of living.”
Timoshenko tried to lure in the liberal, former Central Bank president Sergei Tigipko who won 13, 06 percent of the votes by offering him the prime minister seat in exchange for his support, but after a two-day deliberation he said he will not endorse any candidate.

“I didn’t hear any concrete and serious change for the country, but only promises,” Tigipko said.
Yanukovych also offered Tigipko to join him: “I think that the people who voted for Tigipko are our associates, and for the second tour they will join us,” adding, “he is young, pragmatic and capable politician.”

The fourth candidate, Arseniy Yatsenyuk (6, 96 percent), former chairman of the parliament, also declared that he won’t support any candidate.

Tymoshenko’s strategy of recovering the votes of the other liberal candidates seems to be in limbo. Analysts agreed about the possibility for her to enlarge her electoral base, whereas Yanukovych might have reached his maximum. Surely, their tours around the country need to be convincing.

If we look at the speeches of the two candidates, they appear quite similar. Both of them promise cooperation with Russia, especially in the energy field but also in the heavy industry. Also, they both promise furthering relations with the EU and a deeper cooperation with the main export market that it represents, with the idea that Ukraine is on its way to reach a European standard of living.

Tymoshenko went further on Jan. 14 and promised that “in the next five years, Ukraine will become a full member of the EU.” Yanukovych, who is favored by the Kremlin, is arguing for a sovereign Ukraine open to the West and the East, but united inside his borders.

The two candidates differ on the language issue. If Tymoshenko wants to make Ukrainian the official language “without problems for people speaking other languages,” Yanukovych wants to make Russian the second official language.

For the moment, as other candidates have said, both Tymoshenko and Yanukovitch make general statements and no concrete propositions for the future of the country. Before the second round on Feb. 7, both candidates will have to rally an uncertain number of voters and their political programs need to become more mature.