15 févr. 2010

Mistral’s fear


Within the last 6 months, a lot of speculations has been raising about the possible purchase of a French Mistral by the Russian Federation. First, it was about one Mistral, now it could be four or five. However, a Russian Mistral would considerably increase the power of the Russian fleet. Since then reactions have been quite negative about this project : in Europe, in post Soviet countries, but also in Russia. Overview of different opinions…

First of all, what is the Mistral ? Referred to as « projection and command ship », French mistral is not a kind of destroyer. This ship is capable of transporting and deploying more than 15 helicopters, 13 Leclerc tanks or 1,000 soldiers. It is also equiped with a 69-bed hospital, and double-rooms for soldiers. It means that it’s more like a transporter.

Mistral is useful for fast deploying in any region, but it’s not equiped with heavy military weapons. The aim of Russia in buying such a ship is to obtain this quick force. During the negociations, Russia didn’t really explain what was his purpose. But different officials explained that the French ship was too comfortable for Russia and that they would equiped her differently.

In fact, when negociations started between Paris and Moscow, all the issues of such a deal weren’t clear. Even if Kremlin claimed that this ship would be used against Pirates and Survey in Pacific ocean, fear from post-Soviet countries raised. And when Vladimir Vysotsky, commandant of the Russian fleet, explained that with such a ship Russia would have invaded Georgia in 40 minutes instead of 26 hours, some countries fear became justified.

After meetings and negociations, the final decision hasn’t been reached yet. But some days ago, Jacques de Lajugie, Director of armament at French Ministry of Defense, declared that Russia was finally considering the purchase of four Mistral instead of one.

Sarkozy’s position

French decision to sell Mistral to Russia is mainly motivated by the economic aspect of the deal. A Mistral could be sold more than 500 millions euros, which means employment and growth for the French military industry. The Ministry also explained that other European countries are negociating with Russia, such as the Netherlands with the « Johann de Witt », so why France shouldn’t negociate as other countries do.

On another hand, when the Elysee decided to make these negociations public, it expected reactions from the US, from Europe and also from Georgia. Sarkozy justified the French attitude by saying that the partnership with Russia had to be improved so as to fight against terrorism but also against threats such as Nuclear programs in Iran, or wars in Afghanistan and in Irak. Concerning Baltic states, a French official explained that their fear was not justified because of their membership in NATO, « We are in the same alliance. »

But what about Georgia ? No French official made statement about the future of Georgia. In fact, this is be the most difficult problem for French diplomacy. In August 2008, Sarkozy met several times with both Georgian and Russian sides, and was said to have settled the conflict. Today, selling a Mistral could be analyzed as a betrayal to Georgia.

One of the argument of French Ministry of Defense is to explain that the Mistral won’t be sold with strategic technologies. It means that the boat would be empty, implying no transfer of technologies to the Russian Federation. However, if the ship is working, it wouldn’t be hard for Russian army to install their own military equipments…

The Russian dilemma

On the Russian side, buying a Mistral wouldn’t be harmless. It would be the first time in Russian history that the government buys military equipment abroad, and especially in a NATO State member. The loss of technologies since 20 years, but also bad conditions of Russian fleet are motivating the choice of the Kremlin.

Many observers and politics in Russia are criticizing the project, saying that such a ship could be built in Russia. Ilya Kramnik explains on the website of the press agency RIA Novosti, that Mistral could be launched in 2014 if Russia decides to buy one to France. If Russia built one, it could be launched in 2020 but with less technologies and quality but it also would be less expensive. That means that Russia as to define its priorities.

The international reaction

Immediately, Baltic States but also Georgia were said to be outraged by this negociations. In fact, these ex-Soviet republics fear the influence of Moscow and its will to enlarge its sphere of influence recovering the one it had in Soviet time, against the enlargment of NATO in Estearn Europe.

Estonian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Urmas Paet, asked in last November for more information about the deal and said that the deal would be examinated at both French and European levels. Baltic countries wanted to know if the ship would be sold with strategic technologies, but in fact France explained that it won’t be.

Georgia’s President, Mikheil Saakashvili made a priority of his government the NATO’s membership of Georgia. After 2008 August war, the Russian purchase is merely seen as a threat for Georgia.

This announce was also a cause of discontent for American Congressmen that expressed their opposition to such a project.

When Mistral came to St Peterburg in last November, Russian critics emerged against the French ship that was said to be, « Too comfortable, not military equipped enough, and not protected from flying objects ». Moscow at the same time expressed its will to copy four more in Russia after buying a Mistral in France. The Elysee didn’t commented but was said to be reconsidering its proposition. In fact, the question of the remilitarization of Russia preoccupies Western governments.

Philosopher Andre Glucksmann that supported Nicolas Sarkoy during his campaign expressed his indignation in French newspaper Le Monde, « Providing Putin weapons to a quick landing in Georgia, Crimea or the Baltic States, our message is clear : go ahead ! (…) It’s no more question of stopping tanks on the outskirts of Tbilisi like in August 2008 ! (…) Nicolas Sarkozy is paralyzing his own diplomacy. »

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